Will Murat Kurum win the election?

Turkey is preparing to go to the polls again after 10 months. In 2019, Ekrem İmamoğlu, CHP’s Istanbul Mayor Candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu, who emerged victorious from the election held under the shadow of controversy, is seen as the strongest candidate for Istanbul. 

AKP, on the other hand, nominated Murat Kurum, former Minister of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change, under the shadow of controversy. The performance of the two mayoral candidates has been on the public agenda since January. However, Kurum’s performance has been the subject of intense debate until today. 

Especially the candidates for Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir were discussed intensely in AKP camp. When Murat Kurum’s name was announced for Istanbul, there was uncertainty within AKP. Because many names had been on the agenda and eliminated until that day. Among them were Fahrettin Koca, Minister of Health, Ali Yerlikaya, Minister of Interior… For a while, the names of Fatih Mayor Ergün Turan and finally Tevfik Göksu were being circulated in the circles. 

The candidate for Istanbul, the most important target for Erdoğan, did not satisfy anyone. However, the names of Turgut Altınok in Ankara and Hamza Dağ in Izmir were seen as a reflection of the “lack of ambition” for the local elections. Even within AKP district organizations, the inadequacy of the candidate profiles was discussed. 

But at the end of the day, the only hope of AKP organizations was that Erdoğan would show his influence on the masses. But will it be possible for society to support the local candidates of AKP in a paradigm that is cornered by the cost of living and crowned with “no future”? Moreover, how does the public view the local administration experience under a “proxy mayor” like Kurum? If you wish, let’s take a closer look at the performance of AKP’s IBB candidate Murat Kurum five days before the election…

Military areas opened for rent-seeking, Canal Istanbul’s ÇED report approved

Earthquakes, urban transformation, and urban transport problems are among the most prominent reasons for AKP’s nomination of Murat Kurum, former Minister of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change. However, it is clear to determine whether Kurum is the right candidate by looking at what he has done in the past to find solutions to these issues. 

From 2005 to his appointment as minister, Kurum also held various positions at the Housing Development Administration (TOKİ). Having served as the General Manager of TOKİ subsidiary Emlak Konut GYO A.Ş. between 2009-2018, Kurum served as the Minister of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change from 2018 to 2023. But what did Kurum do during his ministry? 

After the 15 July coup attempt, Kurum, who made controversial decisions after he became the minister, moved the military areas in Üsküdar, Maltepe, Hasdal, Çekmeköy, and many other districts out of the city and opened these areas for construction. The amendment of the law on the expansion and construction of coasts and coastal areas was also realized during the period of the Institution. 

The ÇED report of Canal Istanbul, which was “presented as a mega project” but will mean a major disaster for the city, was approved in January 2020 under Minister Kurum. Not limited to this, the ministry also approved the regulations for the “Yenişehir” to be built around the canal and turned the north of the city into a huge rent area. Ekrem İmamoğlu’s IMM, professional chambers, and various NGOs took the project to the judiciary. 

Salda Lake opened for development

Of course, when Murat Kurum is mentioned, the first thing that comes to mind is the period when he was the President of the Housing Development Administration (TOKİ).  Within the scope of the “100 Thousand Lower Income Group Social Housing Project” launched by TOKİ in 2019, eligible citizens have not received their houses for four years. In addition, many citizens have suffered in this process due to the increase in housing prices and monthly installments by making changes in payment plans. 

The nature and environment policies of Kurum, who signed many controversial decisions in the city during his ministry, were also highly controversial. 

In July 2022, when Kurum was Minister, ÇED processes were made easier and faster with the amendments made to the ÇED regulation. The process of assessing the environmental impacts of projects was almost shelved. As a result, Salda Lake, a natural heritage, was opened for development during the period when Kurum was in office. 

In short, it was during Kurum’s ministry that natural assets were destroyed for development projects.

His blunders became an agenda

Kurum, who came to the fore as a figure who “implemented what was said” during his ministry, came to the fore with his gaffes instead of his promises. 

Undoubtedly, Kurum is not seen as a figure who knows politics well like his rival İmamoğlu. Kurum, who appeared in front of people for the first time, also has serious problems with communication skills. So much so that, while İmamoğlu has more mass support than his own party’s voting rate, Murat Kurum is seen as a candidate who harms his campaign and cannot exceed 40 percent despite the terrible media support behind him.

If Kurum, who has no personal contribution in the field, wins the election, he will have won despite Murat Kurum! 

Let’s remember, as soon as Kurum started his election campaign, he said that he had cheated in his education, that Palestinians would be happy if AKP won Istanbul, and he said “His only rival is himself” for his rival Ekrem İmamoğlu.

Kurum’s gaffes reached such a level that it was questioned whether he even knew Istanbul. Kurum, who confused Küçükçemece with Büyükçekmece during his election campaigns, could not remember which side some districts of Istanbul were on. 

The astonishment on his face, when he was confronted with TOKİ victims, was also worth seeing. The video of Kurum, who mistook the slogans of TOKİ victims protesting against him for slogans of support, saying “May God be pleased with you” became the agenda of social media and İmamoğlu was content with describing Kurum’s behavior as “a novice candidate”. 

Of course, in the last few weeks, Kurum has been heavily criticized within AKP for his 2,500 TL aid to pensioners, his support for Palestinians, his promise of soup, his recent orders through the application, and his performance in Mehmet Akif Ersoy’s TV program. However, it seems that President Erdoğan has convinced his organization that they will win the elections by keeping the organization together on Kurum. 

650 thousand housing promise

In short, Kurum’s competence and abilities are likely to be debated within the party until the last day of the election. On the other hand, Kurum’s gaffes do not seem to have any noticeable negative impact on the entrenched AKP electorate. In short, it is Erdoğan’s performance that concerns the voters, not the words coming out of Kurum’s mouth. 

The image of Kurum, who seems to have assumed a kind of “proxy presidency”, as a risk-averse and obedient candidate under Erdoğan’s wings, causes the undecided voters to turn their faces towards İmamoğlu. 

In particular, Kurum, whose alienation from his project did not go unnoticed, attracted attention with his inconsistent outbursts. AKP mayoral candidate, who criticized Ekrem İmamoğlu for the existence of city restaurants, immediately embraced the project and gave the ‘good news’ of distributing soup. 

Another promise from Kurum was that the earthquake problem would be solved. But how? Kurum, who appeared before the citizens with urban transformation projects, stated that 650 thousand houses will be built, 250 thousand houses will be transformed by private sector companies and zoning regulations will be implemented for the areas where the buildings are located, and 250 thousand sub-sectors will be mobilized. Stating that 250 thousand sub-sectors will be mobilized, Kurum’s emphasis on “Istanbul’s economy will be strengthened” was quite thought-provoking. 

Indeed, Murat Kurum was the most authorized person in charge of zoning activities during the most devastating earthquake in Turkey.

Construction-based accumulation model back on the agenda

Yes, Kurum has been deployed to the field for the realization of urban transformation projects. Let’s say it plainly, Kurum, if elected, will become a figure paving the way for the accumulation model based on rent and construction, which is thought to have come to an end. 

The urban transformation project, which will be launched under the guise of a possible Istanbul earthquake, can be seen as a step taken not to increase urban welfare and secure human life, but to feed the capital and to emerge victorious from the elections through this model as in the past. In short, just like in the past, AKP is once again bringing the “rent market” to the agenda to secure the elections.  

So much so that the footsteps of this period were heard by Erdoğan right at the beginning of the election campaigns. In Erdoğan’s speech to the earthquake victims in Hatay, he stipulated “votes for service” as a condition and stated that in the absence of this, they should not expect help from the state. 

While this statement is intimidation towards the earthquake victims, it can also be seen as an open call to the capital to “Be one of us!” in the process of opening Hatay, Istanbul, Maraş, and a series of other cities for rent. 

Two scenarios

But what might happen in case of a Kurum victory? Two scenarios are being considered. Because the vote rates between the two candidates are very close to each other. If İmamoğlu wins the election, there will be a “natural” opposition leader who defeated Erdoğan twice. If İmamoğlu defeats Kurum despite all media support and state power, this will be read as Erdoğan losing an election to a mayor, and the balance of power in society will change.  

In the context of AKP’s loss of three major cities, the opposition front will probably regroup and start discussions on early elections without wasting time. 

If Murat Kurum wins the election, Erdoğan will appear as a commander who “liberated Istanbul from enemy occupation”. The IBB budget, which is equivalent to the national budget, will be centrally controlled. In short, it is possible to see Kurum’s victory as Erdoğan’s “consolidation of power”. 

However, Erdoğan, who has brought himself to the forefront as a politician who has defeated all his rivals in his political life, will be faced with the fact that with the victory of Kurum, we will be faced with the new constitutional referendum, which includes the complete liquidation of the republic.