Imamoğlu’s 2024 campaign: ‘I am one and you are all’

Will Ekrem İmamoğlu, CHP’s candidate for mayor of Istanbul, defeat President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for the third time? Is this election the last obstacle to the institutionalization of a full-fledged autocracy? What will change in Istanbul and Turkey if Murat Kurum, the candidate of the People’s Alliance, wins? Let’s analyze it together.

AKP, which received 35 percent of the vote in the May 14 elections and fell back to its vote rate 22 years ago, is seeking to stop the party’s loss by allying with the MHP in many provinces. CHP, which was disappointed in the general elections, is now on its own. 

From unity in 2019 to competition in 2024

The biggest goal is to protect the metropolises won in 2019. Since 28 May, IYI Party has completely changed its rhetoric and declared CHP as the “main antagonist”, leaving the alliance and nominating candidates almost everywhere. Meral Akşener, who thinks that the alliance with CHP has weakened the party, after the 6-table process she overthrew for Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş about a year ago, today she heavily criticized the two mayors and put up candidates against them. 

Another party that has changed its policy since 2019 is the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM). DEM, which did not nominate a candidate in Istanbul as an “urban alliance” in 2019, today nominated Meral Danış Beştaş, one of the leading politicians of the party. 

Another party that could change the balance is Yeniden Refah. It would not be a surprise if the party led by Fatih Erbakan took Şanlıurfa and Yozgat. However, an even bigger move is to make AKP lose in Istanbul.

Symbolic, economic, and political reasons make Istanbul indispensable

The place that stands more imposing than the sum of all these parties’ equations and electoral districts in Istanbul. Istanbul is the city where the “Tayyip Erdoğan story” began. According to Erdoğan, this is “his” city. Its symbolic value is very high. 

But is it only symbolic? Of course not. IBB has a bigger budget than nine ministries and 13 state institutions, including the Turkish Grand National Assembly, the Presidency of the Republic, the Directorate of Communications, the Directorate of National Intelligence, the Directorate of Religious Affairs, the Ministries of Interior, Industry and Technology, Energy and Natural Resources.

And there is also a political dimension. Ekrem İmamoğlu defeated Tayyip Erdoğan twice, both on 31 March 2019 and 23 June 2019. In Erdoğan’s 30-year political career, İmamoğlu is the only leader who has eclipsed him. Although he was legally elected president for the last time, a discerning Turkish voter knows that the law always favors Erdoğan at the end of the day. For this reason, Erdoğan intends to turn the next 4 years into a rose garden without thorns by defeating Imamoğlu, who is challenging him.

The campaign started one day after the lost election

When we look at İmamoğlu’s election campaign this term, we see that he started to build today’s process on the morning of 29 May. Imamoğlu appeared before the opposition voters, who were devastated, dispersed, disappointed, and had exhausted the last crumbs of hope, with energetic messages promising hope for the future. Immediately afterward, he covered the whole of Istanbul with posters saying “We won, we won Istanbul”. Imamoğlu prepared for today from those days. However, he was sure that if the elections were held under the leadership of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Istanbul would be in a very difficult situation despite its specific weight. 

On the one hand, while equipping the city to get rid of the defeated air over Istanbul, on the other hand, he became the pioneer of the ‘change’ discourse of the scattered masses. He formed an alliance with Özgür Özel, put all his weight behind him, and in a manner rarely seen in Turkish political life, the delegates changed the chairman. İmamoğlu’s next goal is to win Istanbul again and become the natural leader of the opposition.

When we entered the campaign period, Imamoğlu, as usual, made his devil’s feather in politics talk by going to markets, and openings and mingling with the public. He explained many projects such as metro constructions, infrastructure investments of ISKI, landscaping, and restoration of historical buildings to the public. Murat Kurum’s performance seems to have added more weight to İmamoğlu’s political weight.

What will happen to Turkey if Imamoğlu loses?

Although the pre-14 May excitement is nowhere to be seen, today Turkey is at a crossroads. Since the Presidential System has severely damaged the principle of separation of powers, the checks and balances mechanism of Turkish democracy is now established between local administrations and the central government. For the Erdoğan administration to think twice about making a political decision, the opposition must somehow survive. The renewed realization that the metropolises have withdrawn their support from AKP may lead the government to pursue a moderate policy that takes into account all segments of society. 

Imamoğlu’s loss in Istanbul would topple the social opposition. Erdoğan, having eliminated the last danger in his political career, will call for a new referendum more loudly, and some parties in the Turkish Parliament, who believe that the unbiased will be unbiased, may support this new constitution by finding a cover for it. Even if the CHP does not split, Kılıçdaroğlu and his team will start a major struggle. In this turmoil, the main opposition, which has not been able to successfully examine its main task of monitoring the government for years, will completely lose its focus. 

In the case of Istanbul, Imamoğlu’s loss would mean the re-introduction of Canal Istanbul into our lives. Istanbul’s huge budget will be used behind the shadows without a single public debate. 

What will happen if Imamoğlu wins?

Ekrem İmamoğlu’s victory means that despite all the power of the government and all the obstacles in the last 5 years, the social opposition will rise again on İmamoğlu’s shoulders. 

Today, there are two politicians in front of his party in Turkey: One is Erdoğan and the other is İmamoğlu. And there is no longer a Kılıçdaroğlu in front of İmamoğlu who can prevent him. Imamoğlu is a wall. If it collapses, the opposition will also fall.